Risk Poll 2: If I gave you $500...

Nov 22nd, 2009, 03:06 AM #1 (**permalink**)

If I gave you $500 dollars and then I gave you a choice:

I will take away $100 from you

or

I will flip a coin and heads you keep all the money and tails I take away $200.

Which would you choose?

Nov 22nd, 2009, 06:16 AM #2 (**permalink**)

I would always choose to flip because the odds are same on the flip.

I can be conservative and keep the sure thing. But in my head that is slowlane thinking.

I can take the flip, recognize my risk that the odds are favorable that in the worse case scenario, I still have money but I still have the opportunity to receive more money.

Nov 22nd, 2009, 06:45 AM #3 (**permalink**)

Nov 22nd, 2009, 09:05 AM #4 (**permalink**)

Statistically, the results are the same.
100% x $100 = (50% x $0) + (50% x $200)

What isn't the same is the spread of the results.
In the first case, I'd ALWAYS lose $100.
In the second, I'd lose $100 ON AVERAGE.

So, I'd think gamblers would tend to go with choice #2, since they hope for the best.
More conservative people would go with choice #1, since they'd fear the worse.

An opportunist would bop you in the jaw while you are watching the coin go up, and take all your money.

Nov 22nd, 2009, 01:06 PM #5 (**permalink**)

Quote:

Originally Posted by bflbob

Statistically, the results are the same.
100% x $100 = (50% x $0) + (50% x $200)

What isn't the same is the spread of the results.
In the first case, I'd ALWAYS lose $100.
In the second, I'd lose $100 ON AVERAGE.

So, I'd think gamblers would tend to go with choice #2, since they hope for the best.
More conservative people would go with choice #1, since they'd fear the worse.

An opportunist would bop you in the jaw while you are watching the coin go up, and take all your money.

Remind me to watch Bob at the Beer and Pancakes Meeting.

Nov 23rd, 2009, 03:58 AM #6 (**permalink**)

Quote:

Originally Posted by bflbob

Statistically, the results are the same.
100% x $100 = (50% x $0) + (50% x $200)

What isn't the same is the spread of the results.
In the first case, I'd ALWAYS lose $100.
In the second, I'd lose $100 ON AVERAGE.

So, I'd think gamblers would tend to go with choice #2, since they hope for the best.
More conservative people would go with choice #1, since they'd fear the worse.

An opportunist would bop you in the jaw while you are watching the coin go up, and take all your money.

Thanks, this made sense...after I posted that it probably doesnt matter in the first thread... DOH.

Very good!

Now if I had three doors, and a goat behind one of them... :P

Nov 23rd, 2009, 01:59 PM #7 (**permalink**)

You either lose, or go nowhere. Either one sucks.

Nov 23rd, 2009, 10:43 PM #8 (**permalink**)

Flip away, its not like I'd be losing money anyway considering you're the one giving it.

View Poll Results: Which choice would you take?
I take away $100	5	29.41%
Flip a coin to keep all the money or lose $200 of it	12	70.59%
Voters: 17. You may not vote on this poll

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Risk Poll 1 - If I gave you $300...	biophase	General Business Discussion	13	Nov 23rd, 2009 11:45 PM
CIT risk reversal	JM86	Stocks, Options, Currency, Trading	4	Aug 20th, 2009 06:48 PM
Are you a risk taker?	terencechang	Mindset And Motivation	5	Jul 29th, 2009 12:19 PM
How much risk is too much risk?	Fastlane-News	Economy & Finance News	0	Mar 24th, 2009 02:51 AM
The Big Three Depression risk	Fastlane-News	Economy & Finance News	4	Nov 21st, 2008 03:55 PM

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)