Re: You and Your Opinions...
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Jul 2nd, 2009, 11:54 PM
#21 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bilgefisher
I'm very curious, you are an avid poker player. While long term results can be fairly constant, hand to hand results can very greatly. Did you have to overcome this setback when learning the game or did using longterm odds weigh greater for you?
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There is a very well known phenomenon in poker (and gambling in general)...players are conditioned by prior events, regardless of how statistically improbable. Of course, the degree to which each player is conditioned varies...
There are many very poor players who make most/all of their decisions based on prior experience. They get dealt a bad hand, but remember that time last year when that exact hand got lucky and won...so they play it.
But, it even happens to very good players. Doyle Brunson (one of the best players in history) has won two World Series of Poker tournaments with the starting hand of (10 2).
Not only is it a very, very bad hand, and not only did he get very lucky to win both tournaments with that hand, but being a great poker player, he is well aware that it's a bad hand and that he got very lucky. But, he has admitted that because he won two big championships with that hand -- and because the hand is named after him -- he will play that hand on many occassions when he shouldn't.
So, even the best player in the game is susceptible to this conditioning, and even when he rationally knows his actions to be sub-optimal.
As for how it affected me and my playing...
I started playing serious poker back in the early 90's, before the all the strategy books and the computer simulations. For some simple situations, I would sit at home and calculate the odds so I knew what the right decision was when the situation came up. But, there were many situations where calculating the odds was very complex, so I would use my previous results (real or perceived) to try to determine my odds. And because there were many situations that I didn't see very often, I "guessed" at what the right mathematical decision was.
In the mid-90's, when I started doing a lot of simulation of poker hands, I realized that a lot of my "guesses" were very poor. I had formed a lot of bad habits because I didn't have enough information to form good habits. It took years for me to get rid of some of those habits. And just like most players, I have some "favorite hands" that are pretty bad, but because I've gotten lucky with them in the past, I treat them as better than they are.
Players starting out today have a tremendous advantage over older players. All the information about how to be a great player (including all the math) is well known. So, the players that take the game seriously from the start never fall into the trap of forming bad habits.
In my opinion, that's one of the reasons why younger players tend to be so good (that coupled with the fact that they can get so much practice playing online).